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HomeMy WebLinkAbout07 Appendix E - Transportation AnalysisAppendix E: Transportation Analysis January 24, 2023 FONTANA DOWNTOWN CORE PROJECTTRANSPORTATION STUDY FONTANA, CA Inside front cover Page Intentionally blank Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study Fontana, CA Prepared for: City of Fontana 8353 Sierra Ave Fontana, CA 92335 Prepared by: Kittelson & Associates, Inc. 750 The City Drive, Suite 410 Orange, CA 92868 714.468.1997 Project Manager: Fernando Sotelo Associate Engineer Project Principal: Tim Erney Senior Principal Engineer Project Number 25460 January 24, 2023 Page Intentionally blank CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 3 Purpose of Transportation Study ............................................................................................ 6 Project Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 6 Development Potential ...................................................................................................... 7 Circulation And Parking ...................................................................................................... 7 Regulatory Setting ................................................................................................................ 12 Federal Regulations .......................................................................................................... 12 State Regulations .............................................................................................................. 12 Regional Regulations ........................................................................................................ 14 Local Regulations .............................................................................................................. 15 Existing Circulation System ................................................................................................... 21 Roadway Network ............................................................................................................ 21 Bicycle Facilities ................................................................................................................. 23 Pedestrian Facilities ........................................................................................................... 26 Transit Services ................................................................................................................... 28 CEQA Significance Thresholds ............................................................................................. 31 Transportation Significance Criteria ................................................................................ 31 Specific Transportation Thresholds ................................................................................... 31 CEQA Analysis Methodology............................................................................................... 32 Travel Demand Model ...................................................................................................... 32 Impact Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 36 Roadway Volumes Forecast ................................................................................................ 40 Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 List of Figures Kittelson & Associates ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Downtown Area Plan Boundary ................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 2: Proposed Downtown Area Plan Land-Use Designations........................................................................ 10 Figure 3: Existing, Planned, and Proposed Bikeways as in the Active Transportation Plan ................................ 18 Figure 4: Roadway Functional Classifications within the Downtown Plan Area.................................................. 22 Figure 5: Existing and Planned Bicycle Network ..................................................................................................... 25 Figure 6: Existing Pedestrian Facilities ....................................................................................................................... 27 Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 List of Tables Kittelson & Associates iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of VMT Impact .............................................................................................................................. 3 Table 2: Project Development Potential ................................................................................................................... 7 Table 3: Existing Omnitrans Fixed-Route Service ..................................................................................................... 28 Table 4: Existing General Plan Non-Residential Land Use Assumptions ................................................................ 34 Table 5: Proposed Project Non-Residential Land Use Assumptions ...................................................................... 34 Table 6: SBTAM Model Land Use Inputs for Project Area TAZs1 .............................................................................. 35 Table 7: VMT Generated by Land Uses within the Project Area ........................................................................... 38 Table 7: VMT Within the Fontana City Boundary .................................................................................................... 39 Table 8: Existing and Future Roadway Segment Daily Traffic Volumes ................................................................ 41 Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Appendices Kittelson & Associates iv APPENDICES Appendix A: Detailed VMT Impact Summary Page intentionally blank. Section 1 Executive Summary Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Executive Summary Kittelson & Associates 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Fontana is proposing the Downtown Core project (Project) to create a new focused area in the Downtown Core (Project Area) by creating and implementing a new General Plan land use category and six new form-based code (FBC) districts specific to the Project Area. The Project Area would allow for increased housing development as a primary opportunity to invigorate redevelopment and encourage a mixed-use environment. This transportation impact study was prepared to provide an evaluation of the potential impacts from future development. The Project Area is approximately 480 acres and within the boundaries of Foothill Boulevard, Randall Avenue, Juniper Avenue, and Mango Avenue. Implementation of the Project would allow for the following new development:  Total development of approximately 10,920 dwelling units  Total development of approximately 3,992,868 square feet of non-residential uses The Project Area planned circulation would provide a more “walkable” environment. The Project proposes to ultimately close a quarter-mile portion of Sierra Avenue to vehicular traffic. This would occur in two phases. Phase I (interim condition) would reduce the number of travel lanes on Sierra Avenue from two lanes in each direction to one lane in each direction, convert Wheeler Avenue to a one-way northbound street, and convert Nuevo Avenue to a one-way southbound street. Phase II (the ultimate condition) would close Sierra Avenue between Arrow Boulevard and Orange Way to vehicular traffic, diverting traffic to parallel streets. In accordance with Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, the Project would be considered to have a significant transportation impact if they would:  Conflict with a program, plan, ordinance, or policy addressing the circulation system, including transit, roadway, bicycle, and pedestrian facilities;  Conflict or be inconsistent with CEQA Guidelines Section 15064.3, subdivision (b);  Substantially increase hazards because of a geometric design feature (e.g., sharp curves or dangerous intersections) or incompatible uses (e.g., farm equipment); or  Result in inadequate emergency access. The following scenarios were reviewed and/or developed to help analyze potential VMT impacts with the Project:  2016 Base Year: corresponds to the model base year conditions. It consists of the existing circulation network and 2016 land use profile  2040 No Project: corresponds to the 2040-year conditions under currently adopted plans. It consists of the adopted general plan network and land use. It does not include the proposed Sierra Avenue modifications described above.  2040 with Project: 2040-year conditions with maximum development potential with the Project. It includes the Sierra Avenue Phase II modifications described previously.  2040 with Project Alternative 1: 2040-year conditions with less than maximum development potential with the Project. It also includes the Sierra Avenue Phase II modifications described previously. PROJECT VMT IMPACT ASSESSMENT The projected vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) impacts due to the Project were calculated using the San Bernardino County regional travel model as shown in Table 1. The project impact threshold would not be exceeded in any scenario. Table 1: Summary of VMT Impact Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Executive Summary Kittelson & Associates 4 Units 2016 Base Year 2040 No Project 2040 with Project 2040 with Project Alternative 1 TOTAL PROJECT VMT Total VMT 320,765 884,989 983,134 503,940 VMT per Service Population1 30.00 20.13 19.29 22.62 Impact Threshold2 32.82 32.82 32.82 32.82 EXCEEDS THRESHOLD NO NO NO NO Source: Kittelson and Associates, 2022. 1 Service population includes residents and employees 2 Impact threshold is 15% below San Bernardino County 2016 base year value CUMULATIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT A significant transportation cumulative impact would occur if there would be a net increase in total regional VMT under horizon year 2040 conditions. The total VMT within the City’s boundaries was calculated under the Cumulative (2040) condition without and with implementation of the Project. The Cumulative Daily VMT within the City under No Project conditions would be 5,456,350. The Cumulative Daily VMT with Project would be 5,484,250. Therefore, the Project (under maximum development potential) would result in a Citywide VMT increase of 27,900. This corresponds to a 0.51% percent increase in the total VMT compared to the No Project scenario. It is expected the improvements to the transportation network and the new land uses associated with the Specific Plan would be consistent with the definition of Transit-Oriented Development. The regional travel model may not fully account for the potential of increased share of transit, bicyclists and pedestrians due to the implementation of the Specific Plan, as the model is at too large a scale to account for block-level travel characteristics. Therefore, off-model reductions anticipated from provision of transit-oriented development could expect to have a reduction of in excess of 27,900 VMT. Applying this reduction to the Project-level VMT analysis indicates that the Project would not result in an increase in the regional VMT. Therefore, the cumulative impact with the Project would be less than significant. POTENTIAL CONFLICT WITH A PROGRAM, PLAN, ORDINANCE, OR POLICY ADDRESSING THE CIRCULATION SYSTEM Relevant City circulation system policies, programs, and plans were reviewed to confirm consistency and that the proposed Project plans would not preclude implementation of existing plans. Moreover, it was determined that there would be less than significant impact to emergency vehicle access. POTENTIAL INCREASE IN HAZARDS Because the Project proposes modifications to Sierra Avenue between Orange Way, Arrow Boulevard, Wheeler Avenue, and Nuevo Avenue, buildout of the Project would involve the alteration, intensification, and redistribution of land uses in the Project Area that would affect all modes of travel. Prior to implementation, these improvements would be subject to a detailed review and future consideration by the City’s Public Works engineering staff. An evaluation of the roadway alignments, intersection geometrics, and traffic control features would be needed at the project design level. Roadway improvements would have to be made in accordance with the City’s circulation plan and roadway design guidelines and meet design guidelines in the California Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices and the Caltrans Roadway Design Manual. Section 2 Introduction Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Purpose of Transportation Study Kittelson & Associates 6 PURPOSE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDY The City of Fontana adopted the "Fontana Forward" 2015-2035 General Plan update in 2018. As part of that update, the City Council approved a Downtown Area Plan. The goal of the Downtown Area Plan was to create a vibrant, walkable, mixed-use area with high quality housing and retail options. The form-based code (FBC) was created as part of the Zoning Code to implement the Downtown Area Plan and was adopted in 2019. The City is proposing the Downtown Core Project (Project) to create a new focused area in the Downtown Core (Project Area) by creating and implementing a new General Plan land use category and six new FBC districts specific to the Project Area. The Project Area would allow for increased housing development as a primary opportunity to invigorate redevelopment and encourage a mixed-use environment. To help provide additional housing opportunities, the City applied for and was awarded a Senate Bill (SB) 2 Planning Grant in 2020. The Project Area is approximately 480 acres and within the boundaries of Foothill Boulevard, Randall Avenue, Juniper Avenue, and Mango Avenue. The area includes the Fontana Metrolink Station and City Hall and includes several sites that would support transit-oriented development. Figure 1 presents the Project Area boundary. This transportation impact study was prepared to support environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) through an assessment of the existing circulation system within the Project Area and an evaluation of the potential impacts from future development. This study includes a review of the following:  Review of consistency with existing City programs, plans, ordinances, and policies related to pedestrian and bicyclists, and transit facilities  Assessment of the existing circulation conditions, including roadways, pedestrian, bicycle, and transit facilities  Assessment of the Project's Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) impact compared to the City’s adopted thresholds  Assessment of impacts and mitigations related to geometric design and emergency access. PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS The Project would involve amending the General Plan, including establishing a new General Plan land use category, amending the General Plan Land Use Map to apply the new land use category, and amending the Zoning and Development Code, including the Zoning District Map. The Project would, in part, provide increased residential development opportunities, consistent with the goals of the SB 2 Planning Grant received by the City. The Project proposes the following six new FBC districts as shown on Figure 2. The following FBC districts are:  Civic Core  Gateway Core  Multi-Family Core  Mixed-Use Core  Neighborhood Core  Sierra Core Although the proposed Project does not involve construction of site-specific development, the intent is to promote additional residential development and supportive commercial uses and amenities, as discussed below. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Project Characteristics Kittelson & Associates 7 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL The proposed General Plan, General Plan Land Use Map, Zoning District Map, and Zoning and Development Code amendments would apply the new General Plan WMXU-3 land use category and new Zoning and Development Code FBC districts to the Project Area. Table 2, Project Development Potential, identifies the maximum development potential that could occur within the Project Area under the proposed FBC districts. It should be noted that the transportation analysis also evaluates VMT under a lesser development scenario as described under the methodology and impact analysis sections. Table 2: Project Development Potential FBC District Maximum Project Development Potential Existing Development Anticipated to Remain Net New Development Potential Residential (du) Commercial (sf) Residential (du) Commercial (sf) Residential (du) Commercial (sf) Gateway Core 4,331 1,537,799 276 125,091 4,055 1,412,708 Multi-Family Core 3,438 0 0 0 3,438 0 Mixed-Use Core 2,203 1,905,262 0 0 2,203 1,905,262 Neighborhood Core 461 0 0 0 461 0 Sierra Core 871 373,802 108 0 763 373,802 Civic Core 0 500,538 0 199,442 0 301,096 Total 11,304 4,317,401 384 324,533 10,920 3,992,868 Notes: du = dwelling units, sf = square feet Source: DeNovo Planning Group, Project Description, November 29, 2022. Existing residential= 2,020 dwelling units, and existing non-residential development area= 1,307,464 building square feet. As shown in Table 2, based on the maximum development potential and existing (on-the-ground) development anticipated to remain, implementation of the Downtown Core Project would allow for the following new development:  Total development of approximately 10,920 dwelling units  Total development of approximately 3,992,868 square feet of non-residential uses CIRCULATION AND PARKING The Project Area planned circulation would provide a more “walkable” environment, designed to incorporate traffic calming measures to reduce traffic speeds, enhance pedestrian safety, and promote walkability of the area, specifically along Sierra Avenue. Traffic-calming methods could include corner bulb- outs, parallel parking areas, sidewalk expansion, bike lanes and enhanced intersection paving areas. To enhance the pedestrian experience and promote walkability, the Project proposes to ultimately close a quarter-mile portion of Sierra Avenue to vehicular traffic between Orange Way and Arrow Boulevard. This would occur in two phases. Phase I (interim condition) would reduce the number of travel lanes on Sierra Avenue from two lanes in each direction to one lane in each direction, convert Wheeler Avenue to a one- way northbound street, and convert Nuevo Avenue to a one-way southbound street. Phase II (the ultimate condition) would close Sierra Avenue between Arrow Boulevard and Orange Way to vehicular traffic. The Project Area would include parking opportunities through incorporation of various design solutions, including on-street parking, public surface lots, on-site commercial and residential parking opportunities, parking structures, and “tuck-under” parking. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Project Characteristics Kittelson & Associates 8 General Plan Chapter 9 Exhibit 9.2 would be amended to modify the roadway functional class for Nuevo Avenue and Wheeler Avenue and to remove the roadway functional class for Sierra Avenue between Arrow Boulevard and Orange Way; related text modifications would also occur for consistency. The assumptions used in this transportation analysis consider the highest residential development and commercial potential that could be built and the complete Phase II closure of Sierra Avenue to vehicular traffic between Arrow Boulevard and Orange Way; therefore impacts of less intense development and reduced travel lanes on Sierra Avenue are within the scope of the analysis. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Project Characteristics Kittelson & Associates 9 Figure 1: Downtown Area Plan Boundary Source: DeNovo Planning Group, 2022. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Project Characteristics Kittelson & Associates 10 Figure 2: Proposed Downtown Area Plan Land-Use Designations Source: DeNovo Planning Group, 2022. Section 3 Regulatory Setting Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 12 REGULATORY SETTING Relevant policies and plans include those published by the City of Fontana, regional regulations within San Bernardino County, as well as state and federal regulations and plans as summarized below. FEDERAL REGULATIONS Federal Highway Administration The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is a federal agency that focuses on national highway programs. FHWA administers and manages federal highway programs and establishes national standards. The FHWA publishes the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) which specifies the standards for street markings, traffic signals, and street signs in the United States. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) developed the California MUTCD based on the FHWA MUTCD. STATE REGULATIONS California Department of Transportation The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) manages the operation of state highways and is the primary state agency responsible for transportation issues. One of its duties is the construction and maintenance of the state highway system. Caltrans approves the planning, design, and construction of improvements for all state-controlled facilities, including I-10, I-15 and I-210, and the associated interchanges for these facilities. Caltrans has established standards for roadway traffic flow and developed procedures to determine if state-controlled facilities require improvements. For projects that may physically affect facilities under its administration, Caltrans requires encroachment permits before any construction work may be undertaken. For projects that would not physically affect facilities but may influence traffic flow and operational deficiencies at such facilities, Caltrans may recommend measures to address adverse effects from traffic caused by such projects. Caltrans also prepares comprehensive planning documents, including Corridor System Management Plans and Transportation Concept Reports, which are long-range planning documents that establish a planning concept for state facilities. Assembly Bill 32, Senate Bill 32, and Senate Bill 375 Assembly Bill (AB) 32, also known as the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, committed California to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. In 2016, SB 32 added a new target: reducing statewide emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. SB 375 provides guidance for curbing emissions from cars and light trucks to help California comply with AB 32. There are five major components to SB 375:  Air Resources Board (ARB) will guide the adoption of GHG emission targets to be met by each Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) in the state.  MPOs are required to create a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) that provides a plan for meeting these regional targets. The SCS must be consistent with the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP).  Regional housing elements and transportation plans must be synchronized on eight-year schedules. Also, the SCS and Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) must be consistent with each other.  CEQA is streamlined for preferred development types such as mixed-use projects and transit-oriented developments (TODs) if they meet specific requirements.  MPOs must use transportation and air emission modeling methodologies consistent with California Transportation Commission (CTC) guidelines. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 13 California Complete Streets Act of 2008 (AB 1358) Originally passed in 2008, California’s Complete Streets Act took effect in 2011 and requires local jurisdictions to plan for land use transportation policies that reflect a “complete streets” approach to mobility. “Complete streets” comprises a suite of policies and street design guidelines which provide for the needs of all road users, including pedestrians, bicyclists, transit operators and riders, children, the elderly, and the disabled. From 2011 onward, any local jurisdiction—county or city—that undertakes a substantive update of the circulation element of its general plan must consider “complete streets” and incorporate corresponding policies and programs. In 2010, the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) released guidelines for compliance with this legislation which provide direction on how circulation elements can best plan for a variety of travel modes such as transit, walking, bicycling, and freight. Senate Bill 2 SB 2 was part of a housing package signed by Governor Brown that was aimed at addressing the state’s housing shortage and high housing costs. Specifically, it establishes a permanent source of funding intended to increase the affordable housing stock in California. The legislation directs the California Department of Housing and Community Development to establish a program that provides financial and technical assistance to local governments to update planning documents and zoning ordinances in order to streamline housing production, including, but not limited to, general plans; community plans; specific plans; implementation of sustainable communities strategies; and local coastal programs. Eligible uses also include new environmental analyses that eliminate the need for project-specific review and local process updates that improve and expedite local permitting. Funded activities are intended to achieve the following program objectives:  Accelerate housing production  Streamline the approval of housing development affordable to owner and renter households at all income levels  Facilitate housing affordability for all income groups  Promote development consistent with the State Planning Priorities (Government Code 65041.1)  Ensure geographic equity in the distribution and expenditure of allocated funds Senate Bill 743 SB 743 was signed into law in September 2013. SB 743 (Steinberg, 2013) requires changes to the CEQA Guidelines regarding the analysis of transportation impacts. Historically, CEQA transportation analyses of individual projects determined impacts in the circulation system in terms of roadway delay and/or capacity at specific locations. SB 743 changes included the elimination of auto delay, level of service (LOS), and other similar measures of vehicular capacity or traffic congestion as a basis for determining significant impacts and identified vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as the most appropriate metric to evaluate a project’s significant transportation impacts. VMT provides an indication of the amount of travel in the roadway system by multiplying the number of trips by the distance traveled. For example, 10 vehicles taking 10-mile trips each would result in a total of 100 VMT. Since the bill has gone into effect, automobile delay, as measured by “level of service” and other similar metrics, no longer constitutes a significant environmental effect under CEQA. Auto-mobility (often expressed as “level of service”) may continue to be a measure for local agency planning purposes. In December 2018, the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the State Natural Resources Agency submitted updated CEQA Guidelines to the Office of Administrative Law for final approval to implement SB 743. The Office of Administrative Law approved the updated CEQA Guidelines, thus implementing SB 743 and making VMT the primary metric used to analyze transportation impacts. The final text, final statement of reasons, and related materials are posted at http://resources.ca.gov/ceqa. The Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 14 changes have been approved by the Office of the Administrative Law and are now in effect. For land use and transportation projects, SB 743-compliant CEQA analysis became mandatory on July 1, 2020. CEQA Guidelines Section 15064.3 describes how transportation impacts are to be analyzed under SB 743. It states that, in general, transportation impacts are best measured by evaluating the project’s vehicle miles traveled. For land use projects, VMT exceeding an applicable threshold of significance may indicate a significant impact (OPR 2017). The City of Fontana identified methodologies and thresholds to evaluate transportation impacts using VMT metrics from land use and transportation projects, which are discussed below. REGIONAL REGULATIONS Southern California Associations of Governments The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is a federally designated metropolitan planning organization (MPO) and is made up of six counties and 191 cities. SCAG develops long-range regional transportation plans including sustainable communities strategies and growth forecast components, regional transportation improvement programs, regional housing needs allocations, and a portion of the South Coast Air Quality Management Plans. On September 3, 2020, SCAG adopted the 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) (Connect SoCal) for the six-county region including Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura Counties. The RTP/SCS outlines the long-range vision and the region’s transportation system investments through 2045. San Bernardino County Transportation Authority The San Bernardino County Transportation Authority (SBCTA), formerly known as the San Bernardino Associated Governments (SANBAG), is responsible for cooperative regional planning and furthering an efficient multi-modal transportation system countywide. The SBCTA administers Measure I, the half-cent transportation sales tax approved by county voters in 1989, and supports freeway construction projects, regional and local road improvements, train and bus transportation, railroad crossings, call boxes, ridesharing, congestion management efforts, and long-term planning studies. San Bernardino Countywide Transportation Plan SBCTA developed the County’s Countywide Transportation Plan (CTP), which was updated in 2021. The plan serves as the County’s input into the Southern California Associated Governments’ (SCAG) RTP/SCS. The purpose of the CTP is to lay out a strategy for long-term investment in and management of the County’s transportation system. Key issues addressed by the CTP include transportation funding, congestion relief, economic competitiveness, system preservation and operations, transit system interconnectivity, air quality, sustainability, and GHG emission reductions. The CTP has developed a set of strategies to address issues such as air quality, goods movement, sustainability, and active transportation. San Bernardino County Non-Motorized Transportation Plan SBCTA released the most recent update of the San Bernardino County Non-Motorized Transportation Plan in June 2018. SBCTA serves in an advisory role, including identifying projects on the regional network, providing advisory support for project development, supporting local education and safety efforts, encouraging the incorporation of nonmotorized facilities into general and specific plans, and working to identify grant opportunities. The plan includes goals to develop an integrated plan and identify sources of funds to implement that plan to promote increased bicycle and pedestrian access, increased travel by cycling and walking, routine accommodation in transportation and land use planning, and improved bicycle and pedestrian safety. The plan lays out design guidelines, bikeway and pedestrian system recommendations, Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 15 implementation strategies and priorities, and funding opportunities. It points out that local jurisdictions are ultimately responsible for implementing projects included in the plan. Short Range Transit Plan SBCTA developed a Short Range Transit Plan (SRTP) to help guide transit service improvements in the region over the next five years. The SRTP identifies transit service plans and help prioritize major capital improvement projects for the region’s transit needs. Goals of the SRTP include connectivity between the various transit agencies in the County, facilitating transit travel between regions of the County and between the County and surrounding counties, and cost-effective accessibility programs for seniors and persons with disabilities. The SRTP was released in December 2016. Long Range Transit Plan SBCTA developed a Long Range Transit Plan (LRTP) to address the County’s current and future travel challenges and create a transportation system that can increase the role of transit in the future. The LRTP establishes a transit vision for the next 25 years, prioritizes goals and projects for transit growth, and prioritizes connecting land use and transportation strategies. The LRTP developed four alternatives: Baseline (with existing transit services), Plan (existing transit and currently planned improvements), Vision (existing transit, planned improvements, and rapid bus and rail), and Sustainable Land Use (redistributing growth to transit corridors and creating Transit Oriented Developments at station areas). The SRTP was released in April 2010. San Bernardino Countywide Points of Interest Pedestrian Plan SBCTA developed a Countywide Points of Interest Pedestrian Plan to assist member agencies with the development of tools and guidelines for identifying and prioritizing pedestrian improvements. The project’s goals include connecting various SBCTA member agencies and synchronizing project planning and implementation, given that each agency has varying pedestrian accommodations, capital improvement programs, and maintenance regimes. Congestion Management Program for San Bernardino County The Congestion Management Program (CMP) for San Bernardino County, published and periodically updated by SBCTA, defines a network of state highways and arterials in the County and provides guidelines regarding LOS standards, impact criteria, and a process for mitigation of impacts on CMP facilities in the County. The CMP was last updated in June 2016. Based on SBCTA’s congestion management plan (CMP), the level-of-service (LOS) standard for the regional CMP roadway system is E for all segments and intersections. Within the Project Area, Sierra Avenue and Foothill Boulevard are part of the County’s CMP Road System. LOCAL REGULATIONS The following plans and guidelines developed by the City of Fontana are related to the Project:  City of Fontana General Plan  City of Fontana Downtown Area Plan  City of Fontana Active Transportation Plan  City of Fontana Municipal Code  City of Fontana Traffic Impact Analysis Guidelines City of Fontana General Plan The City of Fontana adopted the 2015-2035 General Plan Update in November 2018. The General Plan is the primary planning document for the city and serves to guide development throughout the city. Additionally, the General Plan provides the policy framework for the regulation and development of transportation Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 16 systems, balancing demands for moving people and goods within the city. In particular, it addresses vehicular, pedestrian, bicycle, transit, truck, and rail transportation. Parking, transportation system and demand management, and infrastructure funding policies are also included. The General Plan’s Community Mobility and Circulation Element provides guidance on expanding options for transit, bicycle, and pedestrian mobility while continuing to support programs that improve automobile travel. The following goals and policies are the most relevant for the purpose of this analysis: GOAL 1: The City of Fontana has a comprehensive and balanced transportation system with safety and multimodal accessibility the top priority of citywide transportation planning, as well as accommodating freight movement.  Provide roadways that serve the needs of Fontana residents and commerce, and facilitate safe and convenient access to transit, bicycle facilities, and walkways.  Make safety and multimodal accessibility the top priority of citywide transportation planning  Make land use decisions that support walking, bicycling, and public transit use, in alignment with the 2014-2040 RTP/SCS GOAL 2: Fontana’s street network is safe and accessible to all users, especially the most vulnerable such as children, youth, older adults, and people with disabilities.  When constructing or modifying roadways, design the roadway space for use by all users when feasible, including motor vehicles, buses, bicyclists, mobility devices, and pedestrians, as appropriate for the context of the area  Support designated truck routes that avoid negative impacts on residential and commercial areas while accommodating the efficient movement of trucks on designated truck routes and arterial streets GOAL 3: Local transit within the City of Fontana is a viable choice for residents, easily accessible and serving destinations throughout the city.  Maximize the accessibility, safety, convenience, and appeal of transit service and transit stops  Promote concentrated development patterns in coordination with transit planning to maximize service efficiency and ridership GOAL 4: Fontana’s neighborhood streets maintain residential character and support a range of transportation options.  Balance neighborhood traffic circulation needs with the goal of creating walkable and bike friendly neighborhoods  Develop and implement Best Practice Street Design standards for new residential street development projects. GOAL 5: Fontana’s commercial and mixed-use areas include a multifunctional street network that ensures a safe, comfortable, and efficient movement of people, goods, and services to support a high quality of life and economic vitality.  Provide a transportation network that is compatible with the needs of commerce and those who live, work, and shop in mixed-use areas  Encourage mixed use and commercial developments that support walking, bicycling, and public transit use while balancing the needs of motorized traffic to serve such developments GOAL 6: The city has attractive and convenient parking facilities for both motorized and non-motorized vehicles that fit the context.  Provide the right amount of motor vehicle and bicycle parking in commercial and employment centers to support vibrant economic activity  Encourage approaches that reduce the overall number of new parking spaces that must be provided on-site for new development Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 17 City of Fontana Downtown Area Plan The City adopted the Downtown Area Plan in 2018 to provide a comprehensive vision for the City’s Downtown Area. The plan specifies goals, strategies and actions that aid in the implementation of the vision over time. The Downtown Area Plan divides the Downtown area into three primary districts: Downtown Core, Gateway Corridors, and In-Town Neighborhoods. Each district has their own set of goals as laid out below:  Downtown Core: primary area consisting of retail, transit, and civic destinations for the general public – Livable public realm that consist of street network, parks, and other publicly accessible open spaces along with public and civic buildings and facilities – Buildings that accommodate a lively mix of uses that contribute to Downtown’s envisioned character with beautiful facades, pedestrian-oriented frontages, warm lighting, and artistic signage – Activity-rich downtown that offer a wide range of commercial and civic amenities that attract people to the Downtown center – User-friendly district parking that are conveniently located, clearly marked, easy to find, and adequate for the public needs – Clear branding and wayfinding system for the area that’ll help the growing multi-use district compete with suburban shopping centers and entertainment districts  Gateway Corridors: carrying large volumes of people into the Downtown Core – Foothill Boulevard will be transformed into highly-visible gateways that are designed to direct visitors into the Downtown Core – South Sierra Avenue will include new mixed-use development, streetscape improvements, and branding and wayfinding signage along Sierra – Organized corridor infill with commercial, mixed-use, and housing of various forms and intensities in and around Downtown  In-Town Neighborhoods: enhancing neighborhoods near the Downtown Core – Shady streets and open spaces that are pedestrian friendly and create a nice walkable environment – Neighborhood-scale blocks that connect together conveniently for all road users – Neighborhood-scale buildings that provide a degree of privacy for residents, improving safety and security City of Fontana Active Transportation Plan The City of Fontana developed and approved an Active Transportation Plan (ATP) in 2017 to guide infrastructure improvements towards improving mobility throughout the City through safe, convenient, accessible, and comfortable walking and bicycling linkages. The following goals are the most relevant to the Downtown Area Plan:  Increase and improve pedestrian and bicyclist access to employment centers, schools, transit, recreation facilities, and other community destinations through the City  Improve safety through the design and maintenance of sidewalks, streets, intersections, and other roadway improvements such as signage, striping, lighting, wayfinding, and landscaping  Improve the quality, operation, and integrity of the pedestrian and bicycle network infrastructure and facilities that allows for convenient and direct connections throughout the City Within the study area, the ATP includes new planned bike facilities on Foothill Boulevard, Arrow Boulevard, Valencia Avenue, Orange Way, Ceres Avenue, and Sierra Avenue. These are visualized in Figure 3 and will be addressed in the impact analysis section. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 18 Figure 3: Existing, Planned, and Proposed Bikeways as in the Active Transportation Plan Source: City of Fontana Active Transportation Plan, 2017 DOWNTOWN AREA PLAN Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Regulatory Setting Kittelson & Associates 19 City of Fontana Traffic Impact Analysis Guidelines The City of Fontana developed their own traffic impact analysis (TIA) guidelines to consistently assess the traffic impacts generated by development projects on the surrounding transportation network. It serves as a tool for the City to evaluate the effects a development will have on the City’s transportation infrastructure, identify improvements required to maintain the City’s Level of Service (LOS) standards and address Section XV (Transportation/Traffic) of Appendix G of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines. The TIA guidelines include requirements to determine the analysis study area, analyses scenarios, and analyses processes. Finally, the TIA guidelines include recommendations for determining VMT impact thresholds and mitigation requirements for various land use projects. Section 4 Existing Conditions Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 21 EXISTING CIRCULATION SYSTEM ROADWAY NETWORK Street design, connectivity, and the overall built environment influence the type of transportation mode a person chooses to use. Within the Downtown Area Plan, the City of Fontana is supported by a network of core regional streets, including Foothill Boulevard, Sierra Avenue, Arrow Boulevard, Juniper Avenue, Merrill Avenue, Mango Avenue, Randall Avenue, and several smaller connecting streets that provide local connectivity. Much of the street network within the Downtown Area Plan, however, was designed to prioritize cars over other modes of transportation. This is demonstrated by the abundance of public parking, wide streets and travel lanes, and limited pedestrian and bicycle connectivity and amenities. On-street parallel parking is generally allowed on both sides of the road. Within the boundaries of the Downtown Area Plan, there are generally sidewalks, in good condition, on both sides of the road. Figure 4 depicts the major streets in the Downtown Plan Area and their respective functional classes as defined by the City’s General Plan. Key streets within the Project Area include:  Foothill Boulevard: an east-west major highway with two travel lanes in each direction. The corridor serves as the north gateway to the Downtown area. Within the Downtown Area Plan boundaries, a raised center median helps divide the roadway. It is also designated by Caltrans as one of the City’s main truck routes.  Arrow Boulevard: an east-west primary highway with two travel lanes in each direction. The corridor is primarily characterized by a mix of commercial uses and vacant parcels and serves as one of the key corridors that links the westside and eastside neighborhoods together. A raised center median helps divide the roadway. It is also designated by Caltrans as one of the City’s main truck routes.  Orange Way: an east-west primary highway with a total of three travel lanes. It provides direct connections to local transit facilities, in particualr the Fontana Metrolink Station. Double yellow lines help divide the roadway. To the west of Sierra Avenue, bike lanes are generally on both sides of the road.  Ceres Avenue: an east-west primary highway with one travel lane in each direction. The corridor is primarily characterized by single-family residential units and provides residents access to the Downtown Core (as specified in the Downtown Area Plan). Double yellow lines help divide the roadway. To the east of Sierra Avenue, sidewalks are only located on the north side of the road.  Merrill Avenue: an east-west primary highway with two travel lanes in each direction. Acting as the southern gateway to the Downtown Area, the corridor provides direct access to Chaffey College and local bus routes. The corridor is characterized by a mix of commercial and residential uses. East of Wheeler Avenue, sidewalks appear only on the south side. Double yellow lines help divide the roadway.  Randall Avenue: an east-west primary highway with two travel lanes in each direction. Residential uses are primarily along the roadway. The corridor also serves as a bike route. Double yellow lines help divide the roadway. There are sidewalks buffered by landscaping on some segments along Randall Avenue.  Juniper Avenue: a north-south primary highway with one travel lane in each direction. Commercial uses are along the corridor north of Ceres Avenue. Residential uses are along the corridor south of Ceres Avenue. Double yellow lines help divide the roadway.  Sierra Avenue: a north-south major highway with two travel lanes in each direction. It is the primary roadway through the City’s Downtown Area connecting visitors, residents, and employees to residential neighborhoods, major commercial areas, and industrial centers. It also provides direct access to the Interstate 10 (I-10), Interstate 15 (I-15), and Interstate 210 (I-210) freeways. A raised median helps divide the roadway.  Mango Avenue: a north-south primary highway with two travel lanes in each direction. The roadway is primarily surrounded by residential uses and provides direct access to local parks and schools such as Veterans Park and Fontana Middle School. Double yellow lines help divide the roadway. South of Merrill Avenue, sidewalks start to become buffered by landscape. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 22 Figure 4: Roadway Functional Classifications within the Downtown Plan Area DOWNTOWN AREA PLAN Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 23 BICYCLE FACILITIES Bicycle facilities are categorized into four types, as described and depicted in illustrations below. Note that while the graphics include typical widths for the various facilities, the exact configuration of a bike facility can vary depending on its location and the jurisdiction’s preferences.  Class I Bikeway (Bike Path). Also known as a shared path or multi-use path, a bike path is a paved right- of-way for bicycle travel that is completely separate from any street or highway.  Class II Bikeway (Bike Lane). A striped and stenciled lane for one-way bicycle travel on a street or highway. This facility could include a buffered (typically painted) space between the bike lane and vehicle lane and the bike lane could be adjacent to on-street parking.  Class III Bikeway (Bike Route). A signed route along a street where the bicyclist shares the right-of-way with motor vehicles. This facility can also be designated using a shared-lane marking (sharrow). Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 24  Class IV Bikeway (Separated Bike Lane). A bikeway for the exclusive use of bicycles including a separation required between the separated bikeway and the through vehicular traffic. The separation may include, but is not limited to, grade separation, flexible posts, inflexible physical barriers, or on-street parking. Existing bicycle facilities in the Downtown Area are summarized below and shown in Figure 5:  The 6.4-mile regional Pacific Electric Trail (PET) is the only fully dedicated and buffered bike path in the study area and allows for multi-use travel  Class II bike lanes along Orange Way and Juniper Avenue  Class III bike routes are found along segments of Sierra Avenue, Foothill Boulevard, and Arrow Boulevard Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 25 Figure 5: Existing and Planned Bicycle Network DOWNTOWN AREA PLAN Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 26 PEDESTRIAN FACILITIES The City of Fontana’s overall automobile-centric design creates long walking distances due to the nature of larger block sizes. Most crosswalks within the Downtown Area Plan are located at signalized or stop-controlled intersections on the arterial and collector roads. They are generally standard crosswalks and on all four approaches. Mango Avenue is missing a west-leg crossing at Merrill Avenue and Randall Avenue. Arrow Boulevard and Wheeler Avenue is missing an east-leg crossing. Skewed crossings are common along principal arterials and cause longer pedestrian crossing times and distances. To illustrate pedestrian connectivity, Figure 6 shows locations of sidewalks within the Downtown Area Plan. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 27 Figure 6: Existing Pedestrian Facilities DOWNTOWN AREA PLAN Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 28 TRANSIT SERVICES Omnitrans Omnitrans is the primary transit service provider for the City of Fontana. As of August 2022, Omnitrans routes 10, 14, 15, 19, 61, 66, 67, 82, and 312 operate within the Downtown Area Plan. All routes mentioned serve as a transit connection for the Fontana Metrolink Station. A summary of each route is provided in Table 3 below: Table 3: Existing Omnitrans Fixed-Route Service Route Number Route Path Description Within Plan Area Operational Days Service Frequency 10 East-west travel via Orange Way North-south travel via Juniper Avenue Monday - Sunday 60 min 14 North-south travel via Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 20 - 30 min 15 East-west travel via Merrill Avenue North-south travel via Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 60 min 19 North-south travel via Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 60 min 61 North-south travel via Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 20 - 30 min 66 East-west travel via Orange Way North-south travel via Juniper Avenue Monday - Sunday 20 - 50 min 67 North-south travel via Sierra Avenue Monday - Friday 60 min 82 East-west travel via Orange Way North-south travel via Juniper Avenue and Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 60 - 65 min 312 East-west travel via Arrow Boulevard North-south travel via Nuevo Avenue and Sierra Avenue Monday - Sunday 60 min Source: Omnitrans, Accessed October 17, 2022. Within the Downtown Area Plan, there are approximately 30 bus stops with an additional 7 serving the Fontana Metrolink Station. Outside of Sierra Avenue, most bus stops are lacking at least one of the following amenities: shelter, benches, lighting, and shading. Lack of amenities reduces the overall comfort and safety for riders and can contribute to reduced transit ridership. Omnitrans also offers a curb-to curb ADA service, called OmniAccess, for qualified applicants whose physical or cognitive limitations prevent them from using regular Omnitrans fixed-route services. OmniAccess complements the existing fixed-route services by serving within a buffer of 3/4 mile of an existing bus route. The OmniAccess service is available during the same operational times as its fixed-route service. OmniAccess riders are required to make reservations for trips or arrange a subscription service for recurring trips. Metrolink Metrolink provides rail passenger service within the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The San Bernardino Line, which stops at the Fontana Metrolink Station, runs between Downtown Los Angeles and San Bernardino. Metrolink operates approximately 34 passenger trains daily through the Fontana Metrolink Station. It operates daily from 4:00 AM to 12:00 AM with a frequency of 20-30 minutes during weekday morning and afternoon peak periods and 60-120 minute on weekday off-peak periods and weekends. Morning trains are primarily westbound trains (Los Angeles Union Station) whereas afternoon trains are more frequently eastbound trains (Downtown San Bernardino). The Fontana Metrolink station is accessible through Sierra Avenue and Orange Way. The station serves as a regional transit hub for Omnitrans and has stops for the following bus routes: 10, 14, 15, 19, 61, 66, 67, 82, and 312. There is free parking on-site, with about 309 parking spaces available. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Existing Circulation System Kittelson & Associates 29 City of Fontana Transportation Program The Transportation Program is designed as a demand-response/ride-sharing program for local senior citizens (55 and older) and medically disabled residents of the City of Fontana. This service transports residents within city limits to:  doctor’s offices  Fontana Community Senior Center  hospitals  shopping centers  fitness facilities Services are available Monday through Friday 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM. Section 5 CEQA Analysis and Methodology Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 CEQA Significance Thresholds Kittelson & Associates 31 CEQA SIGNIFICANCE THRESHOLDS TRANSPORTATION SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA In accordance with Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, the Project would be considered to have a significant transportation impact if it would: a) conflict with a program, plan, ordinance, or policy addressing the circulation system, including transit, roadway, bicycle, and pedestrian facilities; b) conflict or be inconsistent with CEQA Guidelines Section 15064.3, subdivision (b); c) substantially increase hazards because of a geometric design feature (e.g., sharp curves or dangerous intersections) or incompatible uses (e.g., farm equipment); or d) result in inadequate emergency access. SPECIFIC TRANSPORTATION THRESHOLDS The following specific thresholds are used for the CEQA categories. Conflict with Program/Plan/Ordinance/Policy The following thresholds are used to evaluate impacts for CEQA Appendix G Item (a). The Project will be qualitatively evaluated to determine if it is expected to conflict with a relevant programs, plans, ordinances, and policies related to the circulation system. A conflict could occur if the proposed Project would preclude the ability of Fontana to implement its goals or policies. For the purpose of this analysis, the Project could result in a significant impact if it results in a conflict with any adopted City of Fontana programs, plans, ordinances, and policies. Generally, a plan/project causes a significant impact to transit facilities and services if an element of it conflicts with existing or planned transit services. The evaluation of transit facilities shall consider if:  a plan or project creates demand for public transit services above the capacity that is provided or planned;  a plan or project or related mitigation disrupts existing transit services or facilities;  a plan or project or related mitigation conflicts with an existing or planned transit facility; or  a plan or project or related mitigation conflicts with transit policies adopted by the City of Fontana for its respective facilities. The City’s ATP describes the related policies necessary to ensure that pedestrian and bicycle facilities are safe and effective for Fontana residents, employees and visitors. Using the ATP as a guide, significant impacts to these facilities would occur when a plan or project:  creates a hazardous condition that currently does not exist for pedestrians and bicyclists, or otherwise interferes with pedestrian accessibility; or  conflicts with an existing or planned pedestrian or bicycle facility; or  conflicts with policies related to bicycle and pedestrian facilities as adopted by the City of Fontana for its respective facilities. Conflict with CEQA Guidelines for VMT The following thresholds are used to evaluate impacts for CEQA Appendix G Item (b). The City adopted the following criteria for the purposes of analyzing transportation impacts under CEQA that would be allocable Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 CEQA Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates 32 to the project, which for the purpose of this analysis is analyzed as a land use plan. These criteria were as part of a resolution to adopt VMT thresholds, which was adopted by City Council on June 9, 2020. The City’s VMT significant impact thresholds for land use plans are:  Project Threshold: a significant impact would occur if the VMT per service population for the land use plan exceeds 15 percent below the countywide average VMT per service population. This provides a comparison to the countywide average VMT per service population. Service population is defined as the sum of resident population and employees working in the city (Fontana residents who also work in Fontana are counted twice).  Cumulative Threshold: a significant impact would occur if the Project caused total daily VMT within the city to be higher than the No Project alternative under cumulative conditions. In other words, if within the city the Project causes an increase in VMT compared to the No Project alternative a significant impact would occur. This would indicate if the Project changes VMT within the city network. Cumulative conditions are measured for the General Plan horizon year (2040). VMT is calculated using the SBTAM travel demand model. The model output includes total VMT, which includes vehicle trips for all trip purposes, and VMT per service population (population plus employment). Increase Hazards Because of a Geometric Design Feature The following threshold is used to evaluate impacts for CEQA Appendix G item (c). Any project that causes a substantial increase in on-street hazards due to geometric design will potentially result in a significant impact. Generally, a plan/project causes a significant impact to hazards if the area plan creates an unsafe geometric design feature in the transportation system. The evaluation of hazards shall consider if:  The Project creates a change in the transportation system which introduces an unsafe design feature. Inadequate Emergency Access The following threshold is used to evaluate impacts for CEQA Appendix G item (d). Generally, a project causes a significant impact to emergency access if it creates an area with inadequate emergency access. The evaluation of emergency access shall consider if:  The Project creates a change in land uses or the transportation system which result in inadequate emergency access to one or more areas. CEQA ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY Because SB 743 eliminated the use of LOS for CEQA impact analysis purposes, road capacity analysis is not included in this TIA. Under CEQA, the primary quantitative measure to evaluate transportation impacts is VMT. This TIA provides an analysis of potential transportation impacts under current CEQA criteria. A local transportation analysis is being prepared separately to evaluate effects associated with implementation of the Project in terms of roadway capacity and LOS. TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL Forecasts of regional travel by various modes, regional average VMT per capita and VMT per employee values are determined using the SBTAM regional travel model. The travel demand model is a set of Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 CEQA Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates 33 mathematical procedures and equations that represent the variety of transportation choices that people make, and how those choices result in trips on the transportation network. Model Steps The SBTAM regional travel model evaluates travel throughout the five-county Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region and uses the TransCAD software. The model groups land uses in the region into transportation analysis zones (TAZs). The model uses a series of calculation steps to estimate travel associated with the land uses and transportation network.  Trip Generation: How many daily trips by trip purpose are generated by each land use in each TAZ  Trip Distribution: How many trips of each type travel to each other TAZ  Mode Choice: Which travel modes are used by people of different demographic categories for trips of different purposes between each origin and destination, including auto, transit, bicycle and walk modes  Time of Day: Which trips are made during peak hours versus off-peak hours  Trip Assignment: Which routes are used by each vehicle trip or transit trip The daily activity patterns in the travel model are based on a statistical analysis of a household travel survey, where a representative sample of households were asked to track all daily activities and trips by all members of their household. The travel model was calibrated to these surveyed travel patterns, and also validated by its ability to replicate counted traffic volumes, transit ridership, and total VMT from the Highway Performance Measurement System (HPMS) which is based on traffic counts. Modelled Scenarios The following scenarios were reviewed and developed to provide VMT and roadway segment forecasts:  2016 Base Year: corresponds to the model base year conditions. It consists of the existing circulation network and 2016 land use profile.  2040 No Project: corresponds to 2040 conditions under currently adopted plans. It consists of the adopted general plan network and land use, and assumes allowable land use buildout with current zoning.  2040 with Project: corresponds to 2040 conditions with maximum development potential with the Project. It includes the Sierra Avenue modifications network with full closure between Orange and Arrow described previously, and maximum land use development potential in the plan area with proposed zoning.  2040 with Project Alternative 1: corresponds to 2040 conditions with the Project Alternative 1assuming a lesser development condition. It includes the same Sierra Avenue closure modifications as the Project. Land Use The SBTAM travel model requires land uses to be defined for each geographic area in the county. The model defines land uses in TAZs which are typically bounded by major arterial or collector streets and are generally subdivisions of Census tracts. The model land use inputs include numbers of households and employees by employment category, as well as enrollment at schools. The SBTAM model had defined a 2040 land use forecast based on SCAG’s Regional Model. This forecast was generally consistent with the allowable land uses currently in the Project Area, but did not fully account for the proposed land uses in the Project Area. To assess the transportation impacts of the Project more completely, a revised future 2040 land use forecast was prepared for this TIA. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 CEQA Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates 34 A detailed mapping of parcels and allowable development was compiled to determine the maximum buildout potential of each parcel and planning area with both the City’s current General Plan (for No Project conditions) and the Project’s proposed land use map (for Project conditions). Table 4 and Table 5 indicate key assumptions used to calculate model land use inputs. Table 6Table 6 summarizes the housing and employment stats in the SBTAM model for 2016 and 2040. Table 4: Existing General Plan Non-Residential Land Use Assumptions Land Use Designation FAR1 Percent of Square Footage2 Employees per Square Foot Retail Office Institutional Retail Office Institutional Civic 0.27 0% 0% 100% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Downtown Gateway 0.4 40% 50% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Multi-Family 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Neighborhood 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Retail 0.8 80% 15% 5% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Sierra Gateway 0.4 40% 50% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Station Area 0.4 40% 50% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Transitional3 0.5 30% 60% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Sources: SWA, Kittelson and Associates, 2022. 1 FAR = floor area ratio; ratio of building square footage to land area square footage 2 Square footage percentages were based on comparable designations in proposed zoning (T) 3 “Transitional” land-use designation is 50% in Mixed Use Core and 50% Multi-Family Table 5: Proposed Project Non-Residential Land Use Assumptions Land Use Designation FAR1 Percent of Square Footage Employees per Square Foot Retail Office Institutional Retail Office Institutional Multi-Family Core 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Neighborhood Core 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Gateway Core 0.4 40% 50% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Mixed-Use Core 1.0 30% 60% 10% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Sierra Core 0.8 80% 15% 5% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Civic Core 0.5 0% 0% 100% 0.0016 0.003 0.002 Sources: SWA, Kittelson and Associates, 2022. 1 FAR = floor area ratio; ratio of building square footage to land area square footage Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 CEQA Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates 35 Table 6: SBTAM Model Land Use Inputs for Project Area TAZs1 Housing and Employees 2016 Base Year 2040 No Project 2040 with Project 2040 with Project Alternative 1 HOUSING UNITS Single family 536 706 677 677 Multi family 1,349 8,813 10,627 4,336 Total 1,885 9,519 11,304 5,013 EMPLOYEES Retail 801 2,691 2,377 1,024 Non-Retail 2,355 6,824 7,631 3,345 Total 3,156 9,515 10,008 4,369 Source: Kittelson and Associates, 2022. 1 Project was represented in existing SBTAM model TAZs, The SBTAM model TAZ boundaries in the Project Area include some area and land uses outside the Project Area boundary, so totals may not be identical to the Project Description. Compared to the 2016 base year, the current General Plan and Downtown Area Plan (2040 No Project) would allow for an over 400 percent increase in housing and a 200 percent increase in employment. Compared to the 2040 No Project, the 2040 Project would increase housing by 1,785 units (19 percent increase) and employment by 493 (5 percent increase). Alternative 1 would provide about 44 percent of the development allowable by the Project. Transportation Networks The travel model contains representations of transportation networks for all travel modes. The model road network includes all freeways, highways, arterial streets, most collector streets which provide connectivity between neighborhoods, and selected local streets. The roads are coded with information on functional classification, number of through lanes, speed and capacity. All regular weekday transit routes are coded in the model. Bus routes are assumed to run on the streets and be subject to varying congested conditions on those streets. Rail transit operates on separate facilities and is not affected by road congestion. The model also has a general representation of transit stop locations and park-and-ride access. Bicycles and pedestrians are assumed to have access to all streets except freeways. The transportation networks included in the model files provided by SBCTA corresponds to the existing and currently adopted general plan circulation network, which do not include the proposed Sierra Avenue modifications in the area between Orange Avenue and Arrow Boulevard. In addition to the 2016 base year and 2040 No Project transportation networks included in the SBTAM files provided by SBCTA, Kittelson developed a network scenario to represent the proposed Sierra Avenue modifications, as described previously under the project description section. The modifications also required rerouting of all bus routes which currently use the affected segments of Sierra Avenue. Buses were assumed to reroute to the proposed one-way couplet formed by Nuevo and Wheeler Avenues. Future Travel Trends The model presumes that future background travel options and behaviors remain similar to current conditions and does not explicitly account for potential changes associated with disruptive trends, emerging technologies, and changes in travel preferences. As a result, the travel model is likely to represent a conservative estimate of future amounts of commuting, vehicle use and VMT. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Impact Analysis Kittelson & Associates 36 IMPACT ANALYSIS The following provides an evaluation of the Project’s (1) potential conflicts with City’s programs, plans, ordinances, and policies, (2) impacts in terms of VMT, (3) potential geometric design hazards, and (4) impacts to emergency vehicle access. Impact 1: Consistency with Circulation System Programs SIGNIFICANCE CRITERION A: Would the proposed plans conflict with a program, plan, ordinance, or policy addressing the circulation system, including transit, roadway, bicycle, and pedestrian facilities? The following reviews consistency with policies and programs related to transit, pedestrian, vehicular, and bicycle travel. Roadway The Project proposes to modify the existing circulation within the Project Area specific to Nuevo Avenue, Wheeler Avenue, and Sierra Avenue. General Plan Chapter 9 Exhibit 9.2 would be amended to modify the roadway functional class for Nuevo Avenue and Wheeler Avenue and to remove the roadway functional class for Sierra Avenue between Arrow Boulevard and Orange Way. The proposed street closure and associated pedestrian improvements would help to implement several City policies, as noted below. A local transportation analysis is being prepared to evaluate the performance of the circulation system so that intersections and roadways are designed to accommodate future traffic volumes. Pedestrian and Bicycle Travel The Project would enhance the pedestrian experience by providing a more walkable and denser environment. It would also close a quarter-mile portion of Sierra Avenue to vehicular traffic. Within the study area, the City of Fontana’s ATP includes new planned bike facilities on Foothill Boulevard, Arrow Boulevard, Valencia Avenue, Orange Way, Ceres Avenue, and Sierra Avenue. The project would close a quarter-mile segment of Sierra Avenue to traffic while providing a Class I bike path on that segment. The Project also includes Class 2 bike lanes on Valencia Avenue and Orange Way to provide for east-west bicycle traffic in the area. The Project is consistent with the goals and policies of Fontana’s ATP by focusing on land use development near high-quality transit service and implementing Complete Streets improvements which would enhance the safety and attractiveness of bicycle and pedestrian travel. The development would be fully consistent with local and regional policies for reducing VMT and greenhouse gas emissions as well as improving transportation safety. Transit The Downtown Core Area Plan would increase activity adjacent to existing bus and rail transit services and be consistent with regional plans to provide service improvements and increase ridership on those services. The proposed plans would not conflict with transit policies adopted by the City of Fontana or San Bernardino County for their respective facilities. Conclusion In summary, a review of the Project’s land use and circulation characteristics revealed no potential policy inconsistencies or conflicts with policies, plans, or programs regarding public transit, bicycle, or pedestrian facilities or the performance or safety of those facilities. Additionally, the City has numerous policies supporting complete streets and to promote use of transit and active transportation. Therefore, with respect to conflicts with circulation system policies, the impact of the Project would be less than significant. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Impact Analysis Kittelson & Associates 37 Impact 2: Vehicle Miles of Travel SIGNIFICANCE CRITERION B: Would the proposed plans conflict or be inconsistent with CEQA Guidelines section 15064.3, subdivision (b)? The proposed plans were assessed for VMT to comply with SB 743 requirements and CEQA Guideline section 15064.3, subdivision (b). The City of Fontana adopted VMT thresholds and criteria on June 9, 2020 as part of a resolution. Screening Criteria A project may be screened out of a detailed VMT analysis if one of the four following conditions apply:  Development is located in a transit priority area  Development is located in a low VMT generating area  Development is considered to be a low VMT generating project type  Development generates net daily trips less than 500 average daily trips (ADT) For projects that are not screened out, a detailed VMT analysis and forecast through the SBTAM model should be conducted to determine if the project will result in a significant VMT impact. A project would result in a significant project-generated VMT impact if the VMT thresholds described previously are met. The Project as a whole does not meet any of screening criteria above. While most of the Project is located within a transit priority area, it is not entirely located within a transit priority area, and therefore cannot be screened out as a whole. A detailed VMT analysis is provided below. Applicable Thresholds As previously discussed, the VMT significant impact thresholds are:  Project Threshold: a significant impact would occur if the project’s VMT per service population exceeds 15 percent below the existing countywide average VMT per service population.  Cumulative Threshold: a significant impact would occur if the project causes total daily VMT within the city to be higher than the no project alternative under cumulative conditions. VMT Project Impact Assessment The VMT statistics were calculated for the three scenarios mentioned prior, encompassing the Project Area limits. Table 7 summarizes the VMT results for the 2016 baseline, the applicable thresholds to evaluate potential project impacts, and the future three VMT scenarios. Additional details are included in the Appendix. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Impact Analysis Kittelson & Associates 38 Table 7: VMT Generated by Land Uses within the Project Area Units 2016 Base Year 2040 No Project 2040 with Project 2040 with Project Alternative 1 SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VMT per Service Population 38.62 35.13 35.11 35.24 Impact Threshold (15% below regional average) 32.82 32.82 32.82 32.82 TOTAL PROJECT VMT Total VMT 320,765 884,989 983,134 503,940 VMT per Service Population 30.00 20.13 19.29 22.62 EXCEEDS THRESHOLD NO NO NO NO Source: Kittelson and Associates, 2022. Future conditions with the proposed Project would result in decreased VMT per service population in comparison to both 2016 baseline conditions and 2040 No Project conditions.  The VMT per service population with the Project would be 36 percent lower than 2016 baseline conditions.  The VMT per service population with the Project would be 4 percent lower than 2040 No project conditions.  The VMT per service population for 2040 with Project Alternative 1 would be 17 percent higher than 2040 Project conditions, as the lower amounts of land use would reduce opportunities for short trips within the Project Area.  Under all three scenarios, the impact threshold would not be exceeded. The reductions from the base year to the future year indicate that future development, in particular planned mixed-use development, will provide more opportunities for Fontana residents and employees to access jobs and services within shorter distances. The shorter trip distances reduce VMT by vehicles, and also increase the likelihood that trips will be made by non-auto modes such as bicycling and walking. Improved transit service and accessibility to transit also help to reduce VMT even as travel activity increases. Implementation of the Project would result in reductions in VMT per service population compared to 2016 base year or 2040 No Project conditions. The impact threshold would not be exceeded. Therefore, with respect to consistency with CEQA Guidelines Section 15064.3, subdivision (b), the impact of the Project would be less than significant. VMT Cumulative Impact Assessment A cumulative impact consists of an impact which is created as a result of the combination of the project with other projects causing related impacts. A project has cumulatively considerable environmental effects (i.e., is significant) when the incremental effects of the project are significant when viewed in connection with the effects of other projects, including probable future projects. A significant transportation cumulative impact would occur if there were a net increase in total regional VMT under horizon year 2040 conditions. The total VMT within the City’s boundaries was calculated under the Cumulative (2040) condition without and with implementation of the Project (Table 8). The Cumulative VMT within the City under No Project conditions is 5,456,350. The Cumulative VMT with Project would be 5,484,250. Therefore, the Project (under maximum development potential) would result in a citywide VMT increase of 27,900. This corresponds to a 0.51% percent increase in the total VMT compared to the No Project scenario. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Impact Analysis Kittelson & Associates 39 Table 8: VMT Within the Fontana City Boundary Units 2016 Base Year 2040 No Project 2040 with Project 2040 with Project Alternative 1 Total VMT 3,832,922 5,456,350 5,484,250 5,360,244 Source: Kittelson and Associates, 2022. To offset the 27,900 VMT increase with the Project, it would be necessary to reduce the cumulative VMT generated by the Project. Under horizon year 2040, the Project would generate 989,134 total VMT (including travel both within and outside the Fontana city boundary). As such, the VMT within the Plan area would need to be reduced by 2.8 percent to address the 27,900 increase in VMT with the Project. It should be noted that the SBTAM travel demand model used to estimate the Project’s VMT impacts does not fully account for effects of the pedestrian, bicycle and transit environment enhancements proposed as part of the Project, which would promote pedestrian and bicycle travel and the use of transit. Most of the Project would be within a Transit Priority Area and would contain a mix of existing and new buildings and encouraging the development of residential units near transit and along major corridors To assess the reduction in VMT with features of the Project, potential VMT reductions have been identified from the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA) Handbook for Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions, Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities, and Advancing Health and Equity, published in December 2021 (CAPCOA’s Handbook). The Project would primarily consist of TOD development, consistent with the definition in CAPCOA’s Handbook. CAPCOA’s Handbook defines TOD projects as “built in compact, walkable areas that have easy access to public transit, ideally in a location with a mix of uses, including housing, retail offices, and community facilities. Project site residents, employees, and visitors would have easy access to high-quality public transit, thereby encouraging transit ridership and reducing the number of single-occupancy vehicle trips.” For example, Measure T-3, Provide Transit-Oriented Development has been shown to reduce car use and encourage use of transit, which can reduce VMT from between 6.9 to 31 percent. Assuming the lower range reduction, the Project would have a daily VMT reduction of 67,836 (6.9% of 983,134). A reduction of this magnitude due to the project features would result in less VMT compared to 2040 No Project conditions. It is expected the improvements to the transportation network and the new land uses associated with the Project would be consistent with Measure T-3, and therefore could expect to have a reduction of in excess of 27,900 VMT. Applying this reduction to the Cumulative Project-level VMT analysis indicates that the Project would not result in an increase in the regional VMT. Therefore, the cumulative impact with the Project would be less than significant. Impact 3: Roadway Safety Design Hazards SIGNIFICANCE CRITERION C: Would the proposed plans substantially increase hazards due to a geometric design feature (e.g., sharp curves or dangerous intersections) or incompatible use (e.g., farm equipment)? Buildout of the Project would involve the alteration, intensification, and redistribution of land uses in the Project Area. Hazards are typically assessed at the individual project level when an actual design and construction of a circulation facility is proposed. Potential impacts associated with future land use development projects would be analyzed and evaluated in detail through the city review process for those individual projects. The city’s design and construction standards and specifications provide for coordinated and standardized development of city facilities, including roadways. The standards apply to, regulate, and guide the design and preparation of plans, and the construction of streets, highways, alleys, drainage, traffic signals, site access, and related public improvements. As individual projects would undergo review by Public Works and Planning departments for approval and construction and would have to meet design guidelines, potential safety design hazards associated with land development projects would be addressed and result in less than significant impacts. Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Roadway Volumes Forecast Kittelson & Associates 40 The Project includes the Sierra Avenue modifications in the area between Orange, Arrow, Wheeler and Nuevo that would consist of roadway and intersection modifications that would affect all modes of travel. These improvements are currently under concept-level review. Prior to implementation, these improvements would be subject to a detailed review and future consideration by the City’s Public Works engineering staff. An evaluation of the roadway alignments, intersection geometrics, and traffic control features would be needed at the project design level. Roadway improvements would have to be made in accordance with the City’s circulation plan and roadway design guidelines and meet design guidelines in the California Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices and the Caltrans Roadway Design Manual. In addition, the City of Fontana General Plan Community Mobility and Circulation Element includes goals, policies, and actions to improve the safety of all users of the transportation system in the City such as:  Goal 2 Action B: Design streets, intersections, and parking areas with safety and all users in mind.  Goal 2 Action E: Continue to work with Metrolink to increase safety at train crossings, including  improving gate technology, grade separation, and signal coordination  Goal 5, Action C: Implement access-management techniques in commercial and mixed-use areas that allow for smooth traffic flow while creating a safe environment for non-motorized users Overall, implementation of the Specific Plan would not result in hazardous conditions. As individual projects and circulation improvements would undergo review by Public Works and Planning departments for approval and construction and would have to meet design guidelines, impacts would be less than significant. Impact 4: Emergency Vehicle Access SIGNIFICANCE CRITERION D: Would the proposed plans result in inadequate emergency access? Emergency access associated with future land use development projects would be analyzed and evaluated in detail through the city review process for those individual projects. The city’s emergency access standards would apply to all development proposed under the proposed Project. Therefore, with respect to inadequate emergency access, the impact of the proposed plans would be less than significant. ROADWAY VOLUMES FORECAST Traffic volumes on major roads are provided to inform other technical studies required under CEQA, such as noise analyses. The traffic volumes for existing, and forecasts for 2040 cumulative conditions under No Project, With Project, and With Project Alternative 1 are based on the SBTAM Travel Demand Model. Traffic forecasts for specific segments were based on an incremental adjustment methodology to minimize the effects of differences between the travel model and observed traffic counts. For each segment, the increment was calculated between the model’s 2016 base year and the model’s 2040 forecast for each study roadway (link) volume. This growth increment was then added to the observed traffic count to create the adjusted traffic volume forecasts (Table 9). Fontana Downtown Core Project Transportation Study January 24, 2023 Roadway Volumes Forecast Kittelson & Associates 41 Table 9: Existing and Future Roadway Segment Daily Traffic Volumes Roadway Segment Existing1 2040 No Project 2040 With Project 2040 with Project Alternative 1 Arrow Boulevard Juniper Avenue to Rosena Avenue 13,667 16,483 16,370 15,860 Arrow Boulevard Nuevo Avenue to Sierra Avenue 14,076 19,817 26,021 22,071 Arrow Boulevard Sierra Avenue to Wheeler Avenue 13,665 17,663 28,592 23,781 Ceres Avenue Nuevo Avenue to Sierra Avenue 1,894 2,650 2,989 2,519 Foothill Boulevard Juniper Avenue to Sierra Avenue 21,370 27,602 27,137 27,636 Juniper Avenue Arrow Boulevard to Valencia Avenue 13,323 16,097 17,554 14,995 Mango Avenue Arrow Boulevard to Valencia Avenue 10,905 12,655 15,728 13,191 Merrill Avenue Nuevo Avenue to Sierra Avenue 12,843 15,380 16,815 16,061 Nuevo Avenue Arrow Boulevard to Valencia Avenue 928 1,392 17,153 11,076 Orange Way Nuevo Avenue to Sierra Avenue 2,332 8,445 21,478 15,482 Orange Way Sierra Avenue to Wheeler Avenue 1,376 1,415 16,973 13,137 Randall Avenue Olive Street to Sierra Avenue 7,643 8,954 8,978 8,381 Sierra Avenue Athol Street to Randall Avenue 27,582 37,072 35,761 32,688 Sierra Avenue Foothill Boulevard to Ivy Avenue 21,180 33,274 31,931 25,880 Sierra Avenue Orange Way to Ceres Avenue 21,864 34,069 27,200 22,612 Sierra Avenue Arrow Boulevard to Valencia Avenue 22,594 32,951 0 0 Valencia Avenue Nuevo Avenue to Sierra Avenue 1,426 3,910 3,486 2,157 Valencia Avenue Sierra Avenue to Wheeler Avenue 1,160 3,644 3,220 1,891 Wheeler Avenue Arrow to Valencia Avenue 874 1,311 15,365 11,224 Arrow Boulevard Juniper Avenue to Rosena Avenue 13,667 16,483 16,370 15,860 Source: Kittelson and Associates, 2022. 1 24-hour directional counts were taken on November 2, 2022 Appendix A Detailed VMT Impact Summary FONTANA SB2 VMT SUMMARY 2016 2040 2040 2040 Base Year No Project With Project Alt. 1 San Bernardino County Demographics Population 2,140,539 2,749,140 2,755,636 2,732,595 Households 630,327 862,302 864,087 857,796 Employment 790,400 1,033,256 1,033,751 1,028,110 Daily Vehicle Trips Auto 9,103,564 11,803,951 11,824,692 11,730,191 Truck 281,417 404,649 404,617 403,734 Total 9,384,981 12,208,600 12,229,309 12,133,926 Truck Percent 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Daily VMT by Purpose Home Based 41,998,155 58,529,024 58,679,127 58,379,269 VMT/Capita 19.62 21.29 21.29 21.36 Employee Based 15,777,932 20,041,739 20,026,707 20,000,937 VMT/Employee 19.96 19.40 19.37 19.45 Total Daily VMT Auto 106,157,008 122,398,695 122,549,091 122,057,105 Truck 7,021,761 10,482,680 10,484,052 10,476,163 Total 113,178,769 132,881,375 133,033,143 132,533,268 Truck Percent 6.2% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% VMT/Service Population 38.62 35.13 35.11 35.24 Impact Threshold 32.82 32.82 32.82 32.82 15% below County average Fontana SB2 Study Area Demographics Population 7,435 34,453 40,949 17,908 Households 2,046 9,519 11,304 5,013 Employment 3,258 9,514 10,009 4,368 Daily Vehicle Trips Auto 33,699 123,871 137,464 61,522 Truck 958 2,393 2,361 1,478 Total 34,657 126,264 139,825 63,000 Truck Percent 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% Daily VMT by Purpose Home Based 124,127 594,131 716,184 333,864 VMT/Capita 16.69 17.24 17.49 18.64 Employee Based 45,328 120,366 123,288 58,430 VMT/Employee 13.91 12.65 12.32 13.38 Total Daily VMT Auto 299,189 839,002 937,428 471,477 Truck 21,576 45,987 45,706 32,463 Total 320,765 884,989 983,134 503,940 Truck Percent 6.7% 5.2% 4.6% 6.4% VMT/Service Population 30.00 20.13 19.29 22.62 Exceeds Threshold No No No No Fontana City Boundary Total VMT 3,832,922 5,456,350 5,484,250 5,360,244 Prcnt Change from No Project 0.51%-1.76%