HomeMy WebLinkAboutAppendix K4 - Vehicle Miles Traveled Analysis (VMT)
14283-03 VMT Combined.docx
June 21, 2022
Ms. Tracy Zinn
T&B Planning, Inc.
3200 El Camino Real, Suite 100
Irvine, CA 92602
SIERRA INDUSTRIAL VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) ANALYSIS
Ms. Tracy Zinn,
Urban Crossroads, Inc. is pleased to provide the following Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Analysis
for the Sierra industrial development (Project), which is located generally east of Sierra Avenue
and south of Duncan Canyon Road in the City of Fontana.
PROJECT OVERVIEW
The Project is proposed to consist of 2 project sites with a Project total of 585,042 square feet.
1. Acacia Site - consisting of two buildings: a 296,297 square foot warehouse building
(Building 1) and a smaller 88,746 square foot warehouse building (Building 2) for a total
of 385,043 square feet.
2. Shea Site - consisting of a single a 199,999 square foot warehouse building.
A preliminary site plan can be found in Exhibit 1.
Ms. Tracy Zinn
T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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EXHIBIT 1: PRELIMINARY SITE PLAN
Ms. Tracy Zinn
T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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BACKGROUND
Changes to California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines were adopted in December
2018, which require all lead agencies to adopt VMT as a replacement for automobile delay-based
level of service (LOS) as the measure for identifying transportation impacts for land use projects.
This statewide mandate went into effect July 1, 2020. To aid in this transition, the Governor’s
Office of Planning and Research (OPR) released a Technical Advisory on Evaluating Transportation
Impacts in CEQA (December of 2018) (Technical Advisory) (1). Based on OPR’s Technical
Advisory, specific procedures for complying with the new CEQA requirements for VMT analysis,
the City of Fontana adopted Traffic Impact Analysis Guidelines for Vehicle Miles Traveled and
Level of Service Assessment (City Guidelines) (2), which documents the City’s VMT analysis
methodology and approved impact thresholds. The VMT screening evaluation presented in this
report has been developed based on the adopted City Guidelines.
VMT SCREENING
The City Guidelines describe specific “screening thresholds” that can be used to identify when a
proposed land use project is anticipated to result in a less than significant impact without
conducting a more detailed project level VMT analysis. For the purposes of this analysis, the initial
VMT screening process has been conducted with the SBCTA VMT Screening Tool (Screening
Tool), which uses screening criteria consistent with the screening thresholds recommended in
the City Guidelines. Screening thresholds are described in the following four steps:
• Step 1: Transit Priority Area (TPA) Screening
• Step 2: Low VMT Area Screening
• Step 3: Project Type Screening
• Step 4: Project net daily trips less than 500 ADT
Consistent with City Guidelines, a land use project needs only to satisfy one of the above
screening thresholds to result in a less than significant impact.
STEP 1: TPA SCREENING
Consistent with City Guidelines, projects located within a Transit Priority Area (TPA) (i.e., within ½
mile of an existing “major transit stop”1 or an existing stop along a “high-quality transit corridor”2)
may be presumed to have a less than significant impact absent substantial evidence to the
contrary. However, the presumption may not be appropriate if a project:
• Has a Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of less than 0.75;
1 Pub. Resources Code, § 21064.3 (“‘Major transit stop’ means a site containing an existing rail transit station, a ferry
terminal served by either a bus or rail transit service, or the intersection of two or more major bus routes with a
frequency of service interval of 15 minutes or less during the morning and afternoon peak commute periods.”).
2 Pub. Resources Code, § 21155 (“For purposes of this section, a high-quality transit corridor means a corridor with fixed
route bus service with service intervals no longer than 15 minutes during peak commute hours.”).
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T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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• Includes more parking for use by residents, customers, or employees of the project than
required by the jurisdiction (if the jurisdiction requires the project to supply parking);
• Is inconsistent with the applicable Sustainable Communities Strategy (as determined by
the lead agency, with input from the Metropolitan Planning Organization); or
• Replaces affordable residential units with a smaller number of moderate- or high-income
residential units.
Based on the Screening Tool results presented in Attachment A, the Project site is not located
within ½ mile of an existing major transit stop, or along a high-quality transit corridor.
TPA screening criteria is not met.
STEP 2: LOW VMT AREA SCREENING
As noted in the City Guidelines, “Residential and office projects located within a low VMT-
generating area may be presumed to have a less than significant impact absent substantial
evidence to the contrary. In addition, other employment-related and mixed-use land use projects
may qualify for the use of screening if the project can reasonably be expected to generate VMT
per resident, per worker, or per service population that is similar to the existing land uses in the
low VMT area.” 3 The Screening Tool uses the sub-regional San Bernardino County Transportation
Analysis Model (SBTAM) to measure VMT performance within San Bernardino County for
individual traffic analysis zones (TAZ’s) within each city. The Project’s physical location based on
APN is input into the Screening Tool to determine the VMT generated within the respective TAZ
as compared to the jurisdictional average inclusive of a particular threshold (i.e., 15% below
baseline County of San Bernardino VMT per employee). Based on the Screening Tool results, the
Project is not located within a low VMT generating zone as compared to the City’s adopted
threshold of 15% below baseline County of San Bernardino VMT per employee. (See Attachment
A).
Low VMT Area screening criteria is not met.
STEP 3: PROJECT TYPE SCREENING
The City Guidelines identify that local serving retail with buildings less than 50,000 square feet or
other local serving essential services (e.g., day care centers, public schools, medical/dental office
buildings, etc.) are presumed to have a less than significant impact absent substantial evidence
to the contrary. The proposed Project is not considered a local serving use based on the examples
provided in the City Guidelines.4
Low Project Type screening criteria is not met.
STEP 4: PROJECT NET DAILY TRIPS LESS THAN 500 ADT SCREENING
Projects that generate fewer than 500 net average daily trips (ADT) (stated in actual vehicles) are
deemed to not cause a substantial increase in the total citywide or regional VMT and are therefore
3 City Guidelines; Page 12.
4 City Guidelines; Page 13.
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T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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presumed to have a less than significant impact on VMT. Substantial evidence in support of this
daily trip threshold is documented in the City Guidelines.5 The trip generation rates used for this
analysis are based on the trip generation statistics published in the Institute of Transportation
Engineer (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (11th Edition, 2021) (3). The proposed Project is estimated
to generate 1,082 vehicle trip-ends per day, which would exceed the City’s screening threshold of
500 ADT.
Project net daily trips less than 500 ADT screening criteria is not met.
As the Project was not found to meet any of the aforementioned VMT screening criteria, a project
level VMT analysis is prepared to assess the Project’s potential impact to VMT.
VMT ANALYSIS
VMT MODELING
City Guidelines identify SBTAM as the appropriate tool for conducting VMT analysis for land use
projects in San Bernardino County. SBTAM is a useful tool to estimate VMT as it considers
interactions between different land uses based on socio-economic data such as population,
households, and employment. The calculation of VMT for land use projects is based on the total
number of trips generated and the average trip length of each vehicle. SBTAM is also consistent
with the model used to develop the City’s VMT impact thresholds listed by the City Guidelines.
Therefore, the vehicle trips and average daily trip length for project-related vehicle trips are
model derived from SBTAM.
VMT METRIC AND SIGNIFICANCE THRESHOLD
Based on consultation with City Staff, for a single employment generating land use project in the
City of Fontana shall use the VMT metric of VMT per employee as the appropriate measure in a
VMT analysis. The City Guidelines have identified following recommended threshold:
• The baseline project generated VMT per employee exceeds 15% below the baseline
County of San Bernardino VMT per employee, or
• The cumulative project generated VMT per employee exceeds 15% below the baseline
County of San Bernardino VMT per employee.
SBCTA provides VMT calculations for each of its member agencies and for the baseline County of
San Bernardino region. Urban Crossroads has obtained this published data from SBCTA, which
for the County of San Bernardino is 17.1 VMT per employee. As outlined in the City Guidelines, a
threshold of 15 percent below the regional baseline is 14.54 VMT per employee.
PROJECT LAND USE CONVERSION
In order to evaluate Project VMT, standard land use information must first be converted into a
SBTAM compatible input data. The SBTAM model utilizes socio-economic data (SED) (e.g.,
population, households, employment, etc.) instead of land use information for the purposes of
5 City Guidelines; Appendix B.
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T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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vehicle trip estimation. Project land use information such as building square footages must first
be converted to SED (i.e., employment) for input into SBTAM. Employment density factors are
derived by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Employment Density
Study (October 2001) (4). Table 1 presents the estimated number of Project employees by land
use type used to populate the SBTAM model for the proposed Project.
TABLE 1: EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
Land Use Quantity (SF) Employment Density Factor6 Estimated Employees
Warehouse 585,042 1,195 SF per employee 490
PROJECT GENERATED VMT PER EMPLOYEE CALCULATION
SBTAM was utilized to calculate Project generated VMT for the Project’s proposed warehousing
land uses. Those values were then divided by the Project’s scenario specific employees in
estimate to derive project generated VMT per employee. The VMT for all scenarios is then
normalized by dividing by the Project TAZ’s employees. The project generated VMT and VMT per
employee was then calculated for baseline 2022 condition using straight-line interpolation of the
base year and cumulative year results. As shown in Table 2, the Project Baseline VMT per
employee is 19.41 and Project Cumulative VMT per employee is 16.40.
TABLE 2: PROJECT VMT PER EMPLOYEE
Base Year (2016) Cumulative Year (2040) Baseline (2022)
Employees 490 490 490
VMT 10,005 8,036 9,513
VMT Per Employee 20.42 16.40 19.41
PROJECT COMPARISON TO SIGNIFICANCE THRESHOLD
Table 3 illustrates the comparison between Project generated VMT per capita in the Baseline and
Cumulative Conditions to the City of Fontana’s impact threshold. As shown, the Project would
exceed the threshold of 15 percent below the baseline County of San Bernardino VMT per
employee for both in the baseline or cumulative Project conditions. The Project VMT impact is
therefore considered potentially significant.
TABLE 3: PROJECT VMT PER SP COMPARISON
Baseline Cumulative
Impact Threshold 14.54 14.54
Project 19.41 16.40
Percent Change +33.49% +12.79%
Potentially Significant? Yes Yes
6 Table II-B of the SCAG Employment Density Study.
Ms. Tracy Zinn
T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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PROJECT’S CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON VMT
The City Guidelines consistent with the Technical Advisory states that cumulative impacts on VMT
“… metrics such as VMT per capita or VMT per employee, i.e., metrics framed in terms of efficiency
(as recommended below for use on residential and office projects), cannot be summed because
they employ a denominator. A project that falls below an efficiency-based threshold that is
aligned with long-term goals and relevant plans has no cumulative impact distinct from the
project impact. Accordingly, a finding of a less-than-significant project impact would imply a less
than significant cumulative impact, and vice versa. This is similar to the analysis typically
conducted for greenhouse gas emissions, air quality impacts, and impact that utilize plan
compliance as a threshold of significance.” Since the Project was found to have a potentially
significant impact at the project level, it is considered to have a potentially significant cumulative
impact as well.
VMT REDUCTION STRATEGIES
Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies in the form of commute trip reduction
program measures have been reviewed for the purpose of reducing Project related VMT impacts
(i.e., commute trips) determined to be potentially significant. The level of effectiveness of each
trip reduction measure has been determined based on the Handbook for Analyzing Greenhouse
Gas Emission Reductions, Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities, and Advancing Health and Equity
(CAPCOA, 2021) (2021 Handbook). As the future building tenants are not known for the Project,
the effectiveness of each commute trip reduction measures may be limited. In addition to specific
tenancy considerations, locational context is also a major factor relevant to the potential
application and effectiveness of TDM measures. The three locational contexts identified by the
2021 Handbook are suburban, urban, and rural.7 The locational context of the Project is
characteristically suburban.
Under the most favorable circumstances and ideal conditions a project can realize a maximum
reduction of 45% in commute VMT through implementation of the trip reduction program
measures listed below.8 However, ideal conditions are rarely realized as variables such as a
projects locational context limitation (i.e., non-urban areas). Additionally, to achieve ideal
conditions a project must achieve one hundred percent employee participation, and maximum
employee eligibility, which are not generally expected. The proposed Project would require a
minimum reduction of 33.49% to achieve a less than significant impact. The 2021 Handbook lists
the following trip reduction measures. These measures can be implemented individually or
grouped together to create either a voluntary or mandatory commute trip reduction (CTR)
program.
• T-5 – Implement Commute Trip Reduction Marketing (up to 4.0% reduction)
• T-8 – Provide Ridesharing Program (up to 8% reduction)
7 2021 Handbook; Page 43
8 2021 Handbook; Page 61
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T&B Planning, Inc.
June 21, 2022
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• T-9 – Implement Subsidized or Discounted Transit Program (up to 5.5% reduction)
• T-10 – Provide End-of-Trip Facilities (up to 4.4% reduction)
• T-11 – Provide Employer-Sponsored Vanpool (up to 20.4% reduction)
• T-12 – Price Workplace Parking (up to 20.0% reduction)
• T-13 – Implement Employee Parking Cash-Out (up to 12.0% reduction)
Other regional transportation measures that may reduce VMT include but are not limited to
improving/increasing access to transit, increasing access to common goods and service, or
orientating land uses towards alternative transportation. These regional transportation
measures may be infeasible at the project level but will generally be implemented as the
surrounding communities develop. There is no means, however, to quantify any VMT reductions
that could result from implementation. Additionally, the effectiveness of the CTR program
measures listed above have potential to reduce the Project VMT are dependent on as yet
unknown building tenant(s); and as noted above, VMT reductions from various CTR measures
cannot be guaranteed.
CONCLUSION
Based on the results of this analysis the following findings are made:
• The Project’s was evaluated against screening criteria as outlined in the City Guidelines.
The Project was not found to meet any available screening criteria, and a model based
VMT analysis was performed.
• The Project’s VMT analysis found the Project to exceed the City’s VMT per employee
threshold by 33.49% in baseline conditions and 12.79% in cumulative conditions. The
Project is determined to have a potentially significant transportation impact.
• Since the future tenants are unknown at this time, implementation of the feasible TDM
measures discussed above cannot be guaranteed to reduce the Project generated VMT
per employee; the Project’s VMT impact is considered significant and unavoidable.
If you have any questions, please contact me directly at aso@urbanxroads.com.
Respectfully submitted,
URBAN CROSSROADS, INC.
Alexander So
Senior Associate
14283-03 VMT Combined.docx
REFERENCES
1. Office of Planning and Research. Technical Advisory on Evaluating Transportation Impacts in
CEQA. State of California : s.n., December 2018.
2. City of Fontana Traffic Engineering Division. Traffic Impact Analysis Guidelines for Vehicle Miles
Traveled and Level of Service Assessment. City of Fontana : s.n., October 2020.
3. Institute of Transportation Engineers. Trip Generation Manual. 11th Edition. 2021.
4. Southern California Association of Governments. Employment Density Study. October 2001.
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ATTACHMENT A
WRCOG SCREENING TOOL
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ATTACHMENT C
PROJECT TRIP GENERATION
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TABLE 1: TRIP GENERATION RATES
TABLE 2: TRIP GENERATION SUMMARY
ITE LU AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Land Use1 Units2 Code In Out Total In Out Total
Warehousing3 TSF 150 0.131 0.039 0.170 0.050 0.130 0.180 1.710
Passenger Cars 0.116 0.034 0.150 0.042 0.108 0.150 1.110
2-Axle Trucks 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.100
3-Axle Trucks 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.124
4+-Axle Trucks 0.007 0.006 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.019 0.376
High-Cube Fulfillment Center (Non-Sort)3 TSF 155 0.122 0.028 0.150 0.062 0.098 0.160 1.810
Passenger Cars 0.105 0.025 0.130 0.059 0.091 0.150 1.580
2-Axle Trucks 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.038
3-Axle Trucks 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.048
4+-Axle Trucks 0.006 0.007 0.013 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.144
High-Cube Cold Storage Warehouse3 TSF 157 0.085 0.025 0.110 0.034 0.086 0.120 2.120
Passenger Cars 0.062 0.018 0.080 0.025 0.065 0.090 1.665
2-Axle Trucks 0.003 0.007 0.010 0.005 0.005 0.010 0.260
3-Axle Trucks 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.083
4+-Axle Trucks 0.005 0.011 0.016 0.008 0.008 0.016 0.113
1 Trip Generation Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), Trip Generation Manual, Eleventh Edition (2021).
2 TSF = thousand square feet
3 Truck Mix: South Coast Air Quality Management District’s (SCAQMD) recommended truck mix, by axle type.
Normalized % - Without Cold Storage: 16.7% 2-Axle trucks, 20.7% 3-Axle trucks, 62.6% 4-Axle trucks.
Normalized % - With Cold Storage: 34.7% 2-Axle trucks, 11.0% 3-Axle trucks, 54.3% 4-Axle trucks.
4 PCE factors: 2-axle = 2.0; 3-axle = 2.5; 4+-axle = 3.0.
Daily
Land Use Quantity Units1 In Out Total In Out Total Daily
Warehousing (Building 2)88.746 TSF
Passenger Cars: 10 3 13 4 10 14 100
2-axle Trucks: 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
3-axle Trucks: 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
4+-axle Trucks: 1 0 1 1 1 2 34
Total Truck Trips (Actual Vehicles):1 0 1 1 1 2 56
Total Trips (Actual Vehicles)2 11 3 14 5 11 16 156
High-Cube Cold Storage (10% Building 1 & Shea)49.930 TSF
Passenger Cars: 3 1 4 1 3 4 84
2-axle Trucks: 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
3-axle Trucks: 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
4+-axle Trucks: 0 1 1 0 0 0 6
Total Truck Trips (Actual Vehicles):0 1 1 0 0 0 24
Total Trips (Actual Vehicles)2 3 2 5 1 3 4 108
High-Cube Fulfillment (Non-Sort) (90% Building 1)449.367 TSF
Passenger Cars: 47 11 58 27 41 68 712
2-axle Trucks: 1 1 2 0 0 0 18
3-axle Trucks: 1 1 2 0 0 0 22
4+-axle Trucks: 3 3 6 1 1 2 66
Total Truck Trips (Actual Vehicles):5 5 10 1 1 2 106
Total Trips (Actual Vehicles)2 52 16 68 28 42 70 818
Passenger Cars: 60 15 75 32 54 86 896
Total Truck Trips (Actual Vehicles):6 6 12 2 2 4 186
Total Project Trips (Actual Vehicles)2 66 21 87 34 56 90 1,082
1 TSF = thousand square feet
2 Total Trips = Passenger Cars + Truck Trips.
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour